Contributor
Hyperliquid recently launched HIP-4: a new market type for binary outcomes that resolve to Yes or No against a real-world condition. We tracked HIP-4 for the first two weeks of it being live: 18 daily BTC binary outcomes, 6,101 wallets, 28.1 million orders, 908 thousand fills, and 4.64 million orderbook snapshots.
Cerebras ( $CBRS ) announced its IPO issue price at $185 a share on May 13th, against books reportedly 20x oversubscribed. Thirty million shares cleared at an implied market capitalisation above $48 billion, the largest US technology offering of the year. Only, a fraction of this allocation reached retail accounts.
We classified each wallet based on their trading behaviour over past 3 months: addresses with maker-dominated were classified market makers, addresses with high-frequency taker activity were classified arbitrageurs, addresses with low fill rates and builder tagged orders were deemed retail. While this revealed interesting pattens in the market structure, this classification was probabilistic, and the method left roughly 70% of wallets in the market unclassified.
An analysis of orderflow across seven HIP-3 perpetual markets on Hyperliquid, 175,000 wallets, $161B in volume, and the frontends routing it all.
On March 18th, 2026, trade.xyz launched the first officially licensed S&P 500 perpetual futures contract on Hyperliquid, in collaboration with Standard & Poor’s. We analysed the microstructure of this market to test whether trading activity from it contains information that can accurately predict the near-term direction of S&P 500.
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched aerial strikes against Iran. It was a Saturday. Every commodities exchange in the world was closed. The only liquid venue where crude oil could be traded was Hyperliquid, a blockchain-native perpetual futures exchange running 24/7.
